13 replies to this topic

[DaveyJJ]

So on the news that Apple had it's best quarter EVER in the company's history, with even Apple Mac units sold up 48%, the companny stock drops more than 10% (losing $5.00 a share). Huh??? Here are the highlights from macnn.com and macminute.com.

Apple posts $340M profit on strong iPod, Mac growth ...
Apple today reported the highest revenue and earnings in the company's history, posting a $430 million quaterly profit ($0.50 per diluted share) on increased revenues of $3.68 billion--a more than 50 percent increase from the year-ago revenues ($2.35 billion) and 400 percent increase over the year-ago quarterly profits of $106 million ($0.13 per diluted share). Apple shipped 1,236,000 Mac units and 6,451,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 48 percent growth in Macs and 220 percent growth in iPods over the year-ago quarter. "We're thrilled to have concluded the best year in Apple's history, with 68 percent year-over-year revenue growth and 384 percent net profit growth," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "This is the direct result of our focus on innovation and the immense talent and creativity at Apple. We could not be more excited about the new products we're working on for 2006."

Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2005 fourth quarter ended June 25, 2005, reporting the highest revenue and earnings in the company’s history. The company posted revenue of $3.68 billion and a net quarterly profit of $430 million, or $.50 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $2.35 billion and a net profit of $106 million, or $.13 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 28.1 percent, up from 27.0 percent in the year-ago quarter. The company also noted that international sales accounted for 40 percent of the quarter's revenue. In addition, the company said that it shipped 1,236,000 Macintosh units and 6,451,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 48 percent growth in Macs and a 220 percent growth in iPods over the year-ago quarter.

AAPL down 10 percent following earnings announcement
Apple's stock is down more than 10 percent, following the release of record quaterly profit and revenue. The stock, which was up nearly 2.5 percent during markethours, dropped over $5.48 to $46.11 afterhours, following the Apple announcement.

[MacProject]

DaveyJJ, on October 11th 2005, 04:07 PM, said:

So on the news that Apple had it's best quarter EVER in the company's history, with even Apple Mac units sold up 48%, the companny stock drops more than 10% (losing $5.00 a share). Huh??? Here are the highlights from macnn.com and macminute.com.

Apple posts $340M profit on strong iPod, Mac growth ...
Apple today reported the highest revenue and earnings in the company's history, posting a $430 million quaterly profit ($0.50 per diluted share) on increased revenues of $3.68 billion--a more than 50 percent increase from the year-ago revenues ($2.35 billion) and 400 percent increase over the year-ago quarterly profits of $106 million ($0.13 per diluted share). Apple shipped 1,236,000 Mac units and 6,451,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 48 percent growth in Macs and 220 percent growth in iPods over the year-ago quarter. "We're thrilled to have concluded the best year in Apple's history, with 68 percent year-over-year revenue growth and 384 percent net profit growth," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "This is the direct result of our focus on innovation and the immense talent and creativity at Apple. We could not be more excited about the new products we're working on for 2006."

Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2005 fourth quarter ended June 25, 2005, reporting the highest revenue and earnings in the company’s history. The company posted revenue of $3.68 billion and a net quarterly profit of $430 million, or $.50 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $2.35 billion and a net profit of $106 million, or $.13 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 28.1 percent, up from 27.0 percent in the year-ago quarter. The company also noted that international sales accounted for 40 percent of the quarter's revenue. In addition, the company said that it shipped 1,236,000 Macintosh units and 6,451,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 48 percent growth in Macs and a 220 percent growth in iPods over the year-ago quarter.

AAPL down 10 percent following earnings announcement
Apple's stock is down more than 10 percent, following the release of record quaterly profit and revenue. The stock, which was up nearly 2.5 percent during markethours, dropped over $5.48 to $46.11 afterhours, following the Apple announcement.

Heh.  It's mostly driven by emotion and speculation.

[Blackshawk]

Natch.

Think of investors as timid mice and you won't be far wrong. Trying to understand any of them is like trying to understand the female mind.  

[Siriusfox]

DaveyJJ, on October 11th 2005, 02:07 PM, said:

AAPL down 10 percent following earnings announcement
Apple's stock is down more than 10 percent, following the release of record quarterly profit and revenue. The stock, which was up nearly 2.5 percent during markethours, dropped over $5.48 to $46.11 afterhours, following the Apple announcement.

This makes no sense, although it makes me want to BUY BUY BUY! I don't think it has to do with the Shares. I think that it has to do with MS and RealNetworks zipping up the issues.

[Tesseract]

As the Apple Turns has been researching this strange phenomenon for many years now, but they are no closer to understanding it.

Seriously though, I believe it's caused by something just as ridiculous: the stock was overpriced because high profits were anticipated, so investors were buying a lot. Now that the announcement has been made, the stock corrects itself back to a semi-sane level, but not before it goes through a period of overcorrection where the stock is underpriced. So yeah, basically investors in the aggregate are about as smart as a flock of sheep.

[1337]

Actually, as a former Wall Street analyst, and currently performing a job function that requires constant financial / business analysis that encompasses Apple, I can tell you that the Street has some very clear reasons for selling Apple at the moment.

Apple has given very conservative guidance to the Street about how it expects to perform, financially.  They've consistently crushed their guidance estimates, and part of the run-up of the stock can be explained by the market's belief that there's way more performance built into the stock than they're letting on.

That's NOT the reason you saw the stock drop today.  Basically, the rule on Wall Street is "Buy the rumor, sell the fact."  People bought AAPL because they like the growth trajectory of the company.  It's currently rewarded with Price / Earnings ratios better than Dell, simply because they're on a faster growth track.  It's common for a stock to be sold right before an earnings announcement because there's risk in the news the announcement brings.  Investors are doing what's known as "taking profits."  Sure, you could stand to gain a little more if the earnings turn out better than everyone thought, but your down-side is far greater.  Better to sell into the velocity of the rising stock, and let the earnings call set the new price for AAPL going forward.  When everyone sells, the stock price drops.

It's really that simple.

Now, to be fair, there's a good deal of evidence with built-in conservatism to say that Apple has plenty of room to go.  1-year price targets are set around $58 a share, and that's not just investors being sheep.  There are sound financial metrics backed up by Apple's actual to-date performance that support that price valuation, so the question now becomes whether or not you buy into it.

If tomorrow's announcement is some product that makes Apple a staple in the living room with some media / entertainment product, then Apple mind-share willl increase yet again, and you'll see another "crazy" run-up of the stock.

-1337

[Blackshawk]

I'm still kicking myself for not buying 10,000 shares of Apple back when it was down around $5 a share. I could have made $800,000 back around the split or over a million if I sold right now.

[DaveyJJ]

I actually had a few thousand dollars of Apple stock ... bought at US$13/share.

But I sold at $17 (four months? later) to clear my 25% profit.

I guess I should have waited too ... I figured they would've been worth something like $16,000. Rats.

And go figure, today it gained $4.50 back up to $53 and change.

[Frost]

DaveyJJ, on October 13th 2005, 06:25 PM, said:

I actually had a few thousand dollars of Apple stock ... bought at US$13/share.

But I sold at $17 (four months? later) to clear my 25% profit.

I guess I should have waited too ... I figured they would've been worth something like $16,000. Rats.

And go figure, today it gained $4.50 back up to $53 and change.

Heh, you think that's bad. My dad put almost his entire retirement in Apple back when it was at $15 a share on my advice. Crap circumstances I won't go into here ended up in having to sell despite strong desires to the contrary. If he'd been able to stay in his stock would be like a million and a half or so after all that's happened over the last few years. Talk about popsnizzle luck.

[muzein]

AAPL got me interested in investing   Well, the Motley Fool, too.
Back before the iTMS and G5 were released, but we all knew it was coming, I took a few hundred I earned from my summer job (I was 17 at the time) and bought Apple shares.  Worth over $2000 now   

Still a meager amount of money, but it certainly pleases a young person like me, and boosted my confidence enough to invest in a couple other companies, both of which have given me a nice return.

Also, I see this thread is a bit aged now, as Apple's stock quickly bounced back the following day, when people realized it was actually a very healthy financial report...

[edit]Doh, Davey mentioned that already.

[teflon]

so basically, sell when its high just before a earnings announcement, buy the same or more when its dropped, then reap the benefits on any profits, and end with the same amount in the market as you started with, but with the benefit of making a profit... twice!!!
that what youre saying people so??

[Frost]

teflon, on October 19th 2005, 07:24 PM, said:

so basically, sell when its high just before a earnings announcement, buy the same or more when its dropped, then reap the benefits on any profits, and end with the same amount in the market as you started with, but with the benefit of making a profit... twice!!!
that what youre saying people so??

That's the kind of thing I did when I had my dad's retirement money to day trade with. The Spring after Sept 11th when everyone was hurting, I was following the lunatic investor trends of Apple and doing the opposite of them. Made about $65,000 over a few months. To date that's still my crowning achievement. How many people can say they made $65K in 5 months at 20 years-old when they're from a middle income family?

I no longer follow Apple much since I have nothing to play with, but I would assume the same opportunities are there. If you can get the feel of the AAPL investors' collective pulse, there's gobs of money to be made. It's a hard pulse to find though, and sometime just when you think you have them figured out they do something retarded that makes no damn sense whatsoever. Never a dull day as an AAPL day trader.

[teflon]

buy a singe share. sell it, buy it, sell it, buy it.. save the most likely meager profits till your much older then play away!!!

[Lucian]

Now Apple stock is above $60/share. =P My how times have changed...